Every Monday, we pick a topic and let you take it from there. This week, on the question of man-caused climate change, Gordon Gregory takes the “Pro” position and Anthony Watts counters with the “Con.”
PRO/Gordon Gregory
I dearly wish I could believe climate change is not a grave threat. But I’d have to ignore the thousands who’ve devoted their lives to the science and overwhelmingly conclude our consumption of fossil fuels is heating the planet, with devastating effects that will worsen and last many generations.
I’d also have to reject every serious scientific literature review, including the Trump Administration’s November climate assessment prepared by 300 researchers from 13 federal agencies. It’s conclusion: failure to slash fossil fuel use will cause “substantial damages to the U.S. economy, environment, and human health and well-being … .”
Of immediate relevance to our area, the assessment states “the area burned by wildfire across the western United States from 1984 to 2015 was twice what would have burned had climate change not occurred.”
If we continue ignoring the issue, it says, fires will get much worse, meaning more Camp Fires.
Also consider the Defense Department’s January analysis indicating two-thirds of its “operationally critical installations are threatened by climate change.” The DoD has long concluded climate change-driven heat waves, droughts and floods will force mass migrations of people fleeing famine and poverty and greatly increase global conflicts.
Grasping the thin reed of doubt means disregarding the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s October report concluding only quick action can avert the decimation of coral reefs and avoid an array of dreadful consequences we’re likely to see by 2030. Ninety-one scientists from 40 countries analyzing more than 6,000 studies prepared the report.
To doubt means pretending CO2 doesn’t trap heat, and direct measurements don’t prove it is accumulating rapidly. The correlation between fossil fuel use, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature increases are inescapably clear. NOAA and NASA reports show the five warmest years on record were the past five and the 20 warmest years occurred in the past 22 years.
Skeptics grasp at other explanations for the obvious heating, but the administration’s November assessment is unambiguous. “Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the only factors that can account for the observed warming over the last century.”
What skepticism most requires is willingness to accept the risks of worsening wildfires, record-breaking hurricanes, floods and droughts, rising seas, crumbing ecosystems, and increasing temperatures that will curse uncounted future generations.
While I hate thinking about what climate change means for the world, the time for wishful thinking is not only past, it’s dangerous, for it gives us excuses to do nothing.
CON/Anthony Watts
There was a time I believed this, and was fully on the “pro” side; no more. Global warming is a very complex issue and temperature data isn’t as accurate as you might think. It’s not just increased carbon dioxide controlling temperature; there are other factors.
I published studies in 2010 and 2015 demonstrating how weather stations used to measure climate have been encroached upon by human development over the last century, resulting in warmer temperatures. Almost half of the warming signal in the United States is data from stations next to heatsinks where they were not decades ago.
Asphalt and concrete infrastructure have increased but the thermometers stayed in the same place. Anyone who’s stood next to a brick building in the early evening who can feel heat radiating from the surface knows how energy from the sun stored in the bricks radiates heat into the night. USA nighttime low temperatures greatly increased over the past 30 years where daytime highs have not. The method used to calculate warming uses averages of the daily highs and lows over time. Based on examining weather station metadata, I found half of the average temperature increase can be attributed to proximity to increased infrastructure radiating stored heat at night, affecting the lows, thus the average.
Las Vegas is an example. With increased buildings, roads, and homes the nighttime temperature has shot up but daytime highs have not. Guess what? The official climate temperature is monitored at hugely expanded McCarran International Airport. Chicago O’Hare is another example; you may note your luggage tags say “ORD.”. Think this stands for O’Hare? It does not, its “OrchaRD Field” which is what that airport was named and resembled when created. Now it’s a megaplex of terminals and tarmac, but temperature is still measured there. This encroachment process has happened worldwide.
There’s fear that temperature increase is bad for humanity, yet humanity has thrived in warm periods of history, and faltered during cold periods. Famines, epidemics, and death track squarely with cold, and NASA says the Earth is greener over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The polar ice caps and polar bears are still there.
Recent calls from politicians to change our lifestyles or face doom resemble this famous quote from H.L. Mencken: “The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it.”
Gordon Gregory is a former newspaper reporter and currently a small business owner in Paradise and founding member of the Chico Chapter of Citizens’ Climate Lobby. Anthony Watts is known for his time reporting the weather on KHSL-TV, as well as KPAY NewsTalk 1290 radio. He operates the website wattsupwiththat.com, which is part of the ER blog network.
FUTURE TOPICS: “Should vaccinations be mandatory for children?” “Are you in favor of more roundabouts in Chico?” “Is baseball too slow, or should they just leave it alone?” If you’re ready to state your case in 400 words, reach editor Mike Wolcott at mwolcott@chicoer.com.
