This year, something unusual happened. After years of extreme drought and several very wet flood years, the Sierra snowpack, the source of one-third of the state’s water supply, is shockingly average this year: 104% of normal on Friday.

And more is on the way. The National Weather Service on Friday declared a winter storm warning for the Sierra, predicting 1 to 2 feet of new snow through Sunday. Chain controls went into effect on Interstate 80 Friday afternoon.

For a state where 11 of the past 17 years have been in severe drought, where massive, punishing storms last year brought the biggest snowpack since 1983 and waves of destruction along the coast, and storms in 2017 caused $100 million in flood damage to downtown San Jose and nearly collapsed Oroville Dam, an ordinary winter is a godsend, experts said Friday.

“It’s about as normal as you can get,” said Jeffrey Wood, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento. “It’s what we hoped for. In recent years we’ve had extremes. This year is definitely an outlier, but in a good way. Enjoy the normal.”

The last time California had a winter this close to the historical average was more than a decade ago, in 2010, when the Sierra snowpack on April 1 was at 104%. By comparison, last year on April 1 it was 232%. The year before, just 35%.

Two years of ample snow and rain have wiped away drought conditions. Most of California’s big reservoirs are brimming.

They were already full from last year’s bounty and have been topped with storms this year. The largest reservoirs in California on Friday were a combined 116% of their average capacity for the end of March, with the two largest, Shasta, near Redding, and Oroville, in Butte County, at 91% and 87% full.

The conditions mean that cities will not impose water restrictions this summer.

“This is a usefully boring year,” said Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis. “It will be useful if people use the lack of urgency to work on long-term preparations for both floods and droughts. That would be time well spent.”

Precipitation will continue to spread across the area today through Saturday, with the heaviest expected this afternoon into early Saturday. Here's a look at the latest forecast rainfall & snowfall totals. Expect mountain travel delays & chain controls. #cawx pic.twitter.com/1h0IVxPxQT

— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) March 29, 2024

The snowy February and March, along with healthy rain levels across the state, mean that California’s fire season this year could end up being another mild one.

“We might expect something similar to last year,” said Craig Clements, director of the San Jose State University Fire Weather Research Lab. “Below normal in terms of acres burned. More snow. More moisture. Higher soil moisture. And higher fuel moisture levels. Things can change if we get a big heat wave in August. But for now all the rain and snow have helped a lot.”

Last year, following the wet winter, 324,917 acres burned statewide, according to Cal Fire, well below the state average for the previous five years of 1.7 million acres and more than 90% less than the horrific fire year of 2020 when 4.2 million acres burned statewide.

The shifting risk levels don’t mean that climate change isn’t happening, experts say. The Earth continues to warm, which makes droughts more severe. And that warming can cause winter storms to carry higher levels of moisture because more water evaporates from the ocean into them during hotter conditions.

But this year and last serve as a reminder that every year isn’t a wildfire Armageddon, Clements said.

“You are going to have some normal seasons,” he said. “You are going to have wet seasons.”

Few barometers of the state’s changing water fortunes are as dramatic as the weekly reports from the U.S. Drought Monitor, put out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

At the end of March 2022, 100% of California was in a drought, according to the monitor. Water shortages were prevalent around the state. A year later, just 28% of California was in a drought — mostly near the Oregon state line and in the southeastern corner of the state. This week? None of the state is in drought.

Early on it wasn’t clear what this winter would bring. On Jan. 1, the statewide Sierra snowpack was just 21% of normal. But steady storms through February, and particularly in the first week of March, brought the turnaround as the Sierra was blasted with 8 to 10 feet of new snow in blizzards that closed ski resorts and blocked I-80 and Highway 50.

Lund, the UC Davis professor, who described this winter as “unusually normal,” said California still has significant water challenges, particularly in agriculture. State officials and farmers need to do a better job capturing water from storms and diverting it to recharge groundwater, he said.

In other areas, such as the Tulare Basin in the San Joaquin Valley, groundwater has been so heavily over pumped for decades that some acres will need to be taken out of production, he said.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has pushed hard for construction of the largest new reservoir in California in 50 years, Sites Reservoir, a $4.5 billion off-stream project proposed for Colusa County that would divert water from the Sacramento River in wet years for use in dry years. This month, the project received $205 million from the Biden administration and now has more than 90% of its funding. Whether it can break ground depends largely on if it can secure water rights later this year from the State Water Resources Control Board and overcome lawsuits from several environmental groups that say the water diversions could harm fish species in the Delta.

On Tuesday, state officials are expected to take a manual snow survey near Sierra-at-Tahoe ski resort. Friday’s statewide totals are expected to increase from this weekend’s storms.

“Winter is not over,” said Wood, the meteorologist. “It’s not abnormal to have an early spring system like this, and it’s definitely not the end of potential wet weather for the area. We will get some significant snowfall out of this one.”

Weather and water

Last week saw some significant storm systems in terms of wind as well as localized rain showers locally.

Kate Forrest, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office said the first system, which occurred between Tuesday and Thursday last week, brought about a half an inch to an inch of rain to valley areas such as Chico and beyond and up to 1.5 inches in Paradise and foothill areas.

A second system that lasted Friday and Saturday brought an additional 0.27 inches of rain to Chico, just short of half an inch in Red Bluff and 1.26 inches in Paradise.

Lake Oroville’s water level continues to increase and was reported to be 878.86 at 7 p.m. Sunday. The lake had a water level of 857.28 on the same day last year and was previously at 750.14 on March 31, 2022. Outflows from the Oroville Dam’s main spillway continued on Monday.

Meanwhile, Shasta Lake’s water level was reported at 1,055.06 feet as of 1 p.m. Monday.

Enterprise-Record reporter Jake Hutchison contributed to this report.

Wednesday is expected to have more rain.

Today and Monday should see some sun, and the weather service forecast for Tuesday is mostly sunny.

Temperatures highs will likely be in the mid to high 50s with lows in the mid 40s before the heavy rain hits Wednesday, which will drop the highs into the low 50s.

From Friday through Sunday, Chico and surrounding valley areas are looking at one to one and a half inches of rain with Paradise and other foothill areas seeing as high as two inches with the amount increasing as elevations get higher, said Sarah Purdue, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office.

“Red Bluff could see a half-inch to an inch of rain and everything in between from Red Bluff to Chico,” Purdue said.

Additionally, 35-mile-per-hour wind gusts are expected throughout the valley between Red Bluff, Chico and parts of Glenn County.

Snow in these areas is expected to be minimal with the level projected at 6,000 to 7,000 feet in elevation. Purdue said the number will drop to 3,500 in mountain areas north of Redding.

According to the forecast provided by the National Weather Service, there could still be traffic delays, chain controls and icy roads in the mountains. Thunderstorms also have a chance of occurring today and Saturday.

At Lake Oroville, the California Department of Water Resources continues to release between 6,000-10,000 cubic feet per second, said DWR spokesperson Raquel Borrayo, as well as from the Hyatt Powerplant.

“DWR plans to maintain Feather River releases at 10,000 cfs through the weekend, but releases may be adjusted to account for higher inflows into Lake Oroville,” Borrayo said. “Ongoing releases from Lake Oroville provide flood protection to the city of Oroville and downstream communities and ensure storage space remains for ongoing rain runoff and future snowmelt.”

Borrayo added that the State Water Project has increased Lake Oroville’s water storage by roughly 617 acre-feet so far this year.

“Releases are coordinated closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other water operators and are adjusted as needed to account for continuing runoff,” Borrayo said. “DWR continues to monitor lake levels, weather forecasts, and mountain snow levels to optimize water storage at Lake Oroville and meet environmental requirements while allowing for carryover storage into next year.”

As of Thursday, Lake Oroville’s water level was at 865.2 feet, still above what it was for March 21, 2023 when it was at 858.25, but the gap is closing between the two. In 2023, the lake hit its peak of 900 feet on June 21.

Shasta Lake is slowly trending upward in level and was measured at 1,046.12 feet at noon Thursday. The Magalia Reservoir is at 2,192.9 feet and Paradise Lake is at 2,568.8 feet.

DWR will be conducting its next snow survey at Phillips Station on April 2.

Some braved the chilly waters of Big Chico Creek while others enjoyed the sun.

The temperatures are expected to stay in the low 70s today before a storm brings rain Friday and Saturday to the north state.

DENVER — A major storm dumped heavy snow in Colorado on Thursday – forcing flight cancellations and shutting down a highway that connects Denver to Colorado ski resorts.

The storm, which began Wednesday night, delivered the slushy, wet snow typical for March, one of the snowiest months in Denver, and wasn’t expected to wind down until Friday morning. The heaviest accumulations were expected in Colorado’s Front Range region, where the eastern plains meet the Rocky Mountains and the vast majority of the state’s population lives. Most of the snow was falling in the foothills west of Denver.

Those higher elevations had up to 3 feet (1 meter) of snow by Thursday afternoon and more than another foot was forecast by Friday morning. Denver itself got up to about 8 inches (20 centimeters) by Thursday. Up to another 10 inches was expected in the Denver area.

A stretch of Interstate 70 was closed in the Colorado mountains, following numerous reports of vehicles stranded on the highway for hours. While a boon to Colorado’s ski industry, the extreme conditions shut down several ski resorts.

More than 75,000 customers were without power across Colorado on Thursday — about 2% of electric utility customers statewide and concentrated primarily in metro Denver and along the Front Range, according to poweroutage.us.

The storm also closed numerous schools and government offices Thursday and Denver schools were closed in advance for Friday.

Melanie Brooks was out walking her dogs Thursday morning in Denver.

“I’m kind of sad that I didn’t make it up to the mountains because now it’s tough to drive there, and I’m missing a powder day,” she said.

The Colorado State Patrol urged people to stay off the roads.

“Troopers are getting stuck trying to get to all the stranded motorists,” the patrol posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Since the storm is the rarer kind that brings more snow to the eastern half of the state rather than the mountains, it may not do much to feed the Colorado River, which supplies water to more than 40 million people in the West.

The storm started as rain in the Denver area and turned into snow. The area was expected to get 10 to 20 inches (25 to 50 centimeters) of snow, with up to 2 feet (60 centimeters) in the western suburbs, the weather service said.

Jarmila Schultz, 77, was tackling her sidewalks in shifts as the snow continued to fall.

“I have to get out early because I have to do it like four times because it’s going to snow all day,” she said, noting she has cleats on her boots to prevent her from falling. “It’s water, ice and it’s very hard for me to lift.”

But she still loves the snow.

“You know, in my time I skied, snow-shoed and did all this and I think Colorado’s incredible for those type of things.”

Denver deployed 36 residential plows starting at 3 a.m. Thursday with the plan to shave the top few inches of snow off streets, to help clear paths to main streets.

Tyler Barnes, a Miami native who drove a ride-share overnight, was trying snow-shoeing for the first time Thursday morning, and found it was pretty easy.

“It was really what I hoped it would be like,” he said. “I feel confident I could walk a long way in these.”

Denver International Airport was open Thursday, but about 800 flights were canceled with nearly 200 more delayed, according to Flightaware.com.

The snowstorm comes as other parts of the country face severe weather. Massive chunks of hail pelted parts of Kansas and Missouri on Wednesday night, with storms unleashing possible tornadoes in Kansas.

The National Weather Service’s Dakari Anderson, a meteorologist with the Sacramento office, said showers are still expected Monday night and into Tuesday morning but will eventually move on, letting in some blue skies for a while.

“Light rain showers (Monday and Tuesday) and then some gusty winds on Wednesday and Thursday, that’s the gist of the forecast this week with some warming temperatures,” Anderson said.

Winds will likely pick up on Wednesday evening and last through Thursday morning with gusts ranging from 30-45 miles per hour. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to rise as the sun once again takes center stage. Wednesday and Thursday, temps will move from the mid-60s to the high 60s and Friday and the weekend possibly get into the low-to-mid-70s.

“It will be rising a few degrees every day,” Anderson said.

As for the rain Monday night and Tuesday, Anderson said it will be light and range from a quarter of an inch to a half an inch higher in the foothills.

Anderson went on to say that the snow level will range from 4,000 to 5,000 feet, though snow is not expected once the storm moves away from the area.

Bidwell Park’s greenery, along with some early wildflowers, merged well with the sunshine and the cool breeze atop Monkey Face.

Many found the time to hike to the top with friends, family and partners.

Weather forecasts show that Friday will have a similar pattern followed by weekend storms.

Dakari Anderson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office said parts of the north valley can expect up to a quarter of an inch including areas like Oroville, Chico, Orland and Red Bluff with that amount potentially getting higher into the foothills in places like Paradise.

“We’re looking at light stuff on Saturday followed by spotty rain Sunday through Tuesday,” Anderson said.

Any rain on Saturday is expected to be light with the chance of showers starting Sunday along with the potential for wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.

Anderson said the heaviest rain is expected for Sunday afternoon into the evening and then again Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

Snow levels, meanwhile, are still as low as 4,500 feet.

On Wednesday, the storm is forecasted to have cleared off leaving sunshine and temperatures in the 60s. After that, next week has the potential to warm back up after the storm.

In response to the low snow level and icy conditions, the National Weather Service issued a notice saying that there is a possibility for traffic delays and slick roads through mountain roadways as well as chain controls, specifically Sunday through Tuesday night.

Last year, Lake Oroville hit its maximum capacity of 900 feet by June. On March 4, 2023, the lake was at 832 feet in elevation but this year, on the same date, Lake Oroville sat at 860 feet.

Raquel Borrayo, a spokesperson with the California Department of Water Resources, said releases are continuing from the Oroville Dam’s main spillway as well as other channels.

“Water releases from Oroville Dam’s main spillway are currently at 14,000 cubic feet per second,” Borrayo said. “Total Feather River releases via the Thermalito Afterbay Outlet and low-flow channel amount to 14,000 cfs. Releases from the main spillway vary throughout the day depending on the availability of the Hyatt Powerplant for flood protection releases. DWR continues construction work on a River Valve Outlet System project, restricting Hyatt Powerplant operation to the evening and weekend hours for the safety of construction crews.”

Borrayo said the releases will continue from the lake in an effort to prevent flooding, adding that the amount released is based on guidelines from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer’s Water Control Manual.

“Releases are coordinated closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other water operators and adjusted as needed to account for continuing runoff,” Borrayo said. “DWR continues to monitor lake levels, weather forecasts, and mountain snow levels to optimize water storage at Lake Oroville and meet environmental requirements while allowing for carryover storage into next year.”

While the state’s snowpack had a rocky start to the year with extremely limited snow, DWR’s latest survey on Feb. 29 saw something of a comeback with the Sierra Nevada snowpack at Phillips Station showing 77% of the average for this time of year. When the weather begins to stay consistently warmer, the snow melt-off begins to reenter the waterways, often prompting DWR to release additional water from the lake.

“Water released into the Feather River supports the environment and some will eventually make its way through the State Water Project to the San Luis Reservoir where it will be captured to maintain overall water supply,” Borrayo said. “It is important to note that despite continued flood control releases from Lake Oroville, the State Water Project has been able to take advantage of this winter’s storms, increasing water storage at Oroville by approximately 570,000 acre-feet since January 1.”

Meanwhile, Shasta Lake sits at just shy of 1,038 feet as of Monday, a drop from 1,046 feet at its peak so far for this year on Feb. 22.

Around this date last year, Shasta Lake was at 996 feet, which was still a significant increase from March 4, 2022, when it was at 938 feet.

Recent rains

Jeffery Wood, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office, said Chico and surrounding areas saw about 1.17 inches of rainfall in the past four days. Other parts of the valley saw similar totals with Oroville getting just over an inch.

A weather site north of Paradise showed about 1.64 inches of rain in the foothills in the same timeframe.

Wood said this week there will be some more opportunity for rain with up to an inch near and around Lake Oroville and up into the foothills.

People who live in Butte County can call 530-552-3020 for storm-related information. This is not an automated line, those calling the storm information line will be able to speak with Emergency Management personnel. This is not an emergency line. For emergencies residents should call 911.

The National Weather Service predicts this storm will bring up to 12 feet of snow to elevations above 5,000 feet and up to 4 feet of snow to elevations above 3,000 feet. Lower elevations could see lighter accumulations of snow and rain which could be heavy at times.

A wind advisory for strong, southerly winds of 25 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 55 mph is in effect through 4 p.m. Sunday.

As the storm passes through, Emergency Management is urging residents to be prepared for power outages and to use caution, watching for downed trees and power lines when going out.

Residents at higher elevations should monitor roof vents, chimneys and flues for blockage due to snow buildup. These systems need unobstructed access to outside air to properly ventilate. The heavy snow may also cause chimneys to shift, creating potential falling or fire hazards. It is also important to monitor propane tanks and natural gas lines for signs of excessive loading due to heavy snow.