The nationwide poll conducted in mid-March by Florida Atlantic University found 73% of voters agree that “Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government,” including 50% who strongly agree. Just 13% disagree.

But the youngest group of voters, those from 18 to 35, felt much differently.

Slightly more than half — 53% — agreed it’s the best system of government. Just 15% strongly agree while a quarter — 25% — disagreed.

That’s a significant difference — a pro-democracy advantage among all voters of 60 percentage points, compared to just 28 points among younger voters.

The finding merits further study, and warrants concern, said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and authority on public opinion polling.

The FAU poll also found the views of the youngest group of voters are dramatically different than the oldest.

Among voters 65 and older, 89% agree (including 73% who strongly agree) and just 6% disagree with the pro-democracy statement. That’s an 83-point pro-democracy advantage.

“The distinction between younger voters and older voters is very stark,” Wagner said, adding it suggests that “among younger voters there is a loss of faith in the system and the process. That should cause us to ask why younger voters feel the democratic system is not working for them?”

Wagner said the thing that keeps jumping out to him from the poll results was the results among younger voters. “If that’s not concerning, we’re not paying attention.”

The youngest voters were also far more likely to express ambivalence when asked if they agree that democracy is the best system of government.

Among all voters, 14% said they didn’t agree or disagree.

Among those 18-34, 25% said they didn’t agree or disagree; among those 65 and older, just 4% didn’t feel either way.

Political differences

The poll results also revealed political differences in response to the democracy statement.

People who said they plan to vote for former President Donald Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, in November were 22 percentage points less likely to agree that democracy is the best system of government than people who said they plan to vote for President Joe Biden.

Among Biden voters, 85% agree democracy is the best form of government even though it may have problems, 6% disagree, and 10% don’t agree or disagree.

Among Trump voters, 63% agree, 18% disagree, 19% don’t agree or disagree.

That’s a 79-point pro-democracy advantage among Biden supporters and a 44-point advantage among Trump supporters.

When the question is examined by party affiliation of those surveyed — as opposed to those who’ve decided between Biden and Trump — the differences aren’t as pronounced.

Among Democrats: 79% agree, 8% disagree, and 13% don’t agree or disagree.

Among Republicans: 69% agree, 17% disagree, and 13% said neither.

Among independents: 67% agree, 15% disagree, and 19% said neither.

Wagner said the larger share of Republicans than Democrats who disagree may stem from Trump, who has “has suggested he thinks the system is not fair. And I think that’s reflected a bit in the Republican vote.”

Income, gender

There were some other demographic differences, but they weren’t nearly as significant as the difference between the youngest and oldest voters or among Biden and Trump voters.

People with higher incomes were more likely to agree that democracy is the best than people who earn less.

Among voters making $50,000 a year or less: 68% agree, 16% disagree, 17% don’t agree or disagree.

Among those making $100,000 or more: 82% agree, 12% disagree, 6% don’t agree or disagree.

The difference in outlook according to earnings isn’t surprising, Wagner said. “If you’re wealthy, it’s pretty easy to say the system is working for you.”

Polling often shows differences in outlooks between men and women. But the FAU poll didn’t find meaningful differences on the democracy question.

Among men: 77% agree with the democracy-is-best statement, 12% disagree, 11%  don’t agree or disagree.

Among women: 69% agree, 15% disagree, 17% don’t agree or disagree.

How well it works

FAU researchers asked a related question about “how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way democracy works in the United States?”

After years of claims by Trump and his supporters that the 2020 presidential election was rigged — an assertion for which repeated investigations have found no evidence — there are higher levels of dissatisfaction among the former president’s supporters.

A total of 46% of voters surveyed said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the U.S.

Among people age 18-34, it was 36%; for 65 and older voters, 54%; Biden voters, 63%; Trump voters, 33%.

Among all voters, 39% said they were dissatisfied with the way democracy works in the U.S. Among those ages 18-34, 39%; 65 and older, 36%; Biden voters, 23%; Trump voters, 51%.

And 15% of all voters said they weren’t satisfied or dissatisfied. Among those ages 18-34, 25%; 65 and older, 11%; Biden voters, 14%; and Trump voters, 16%.

Takeaways

Overall, Wagner noted, there is still broad support for democracy.

“Most Americans do have faith in democracy, and I think considering all the negativity that we hear, that’s actually a pretty good finding,” Wagner said.

Even though “a good number of people are currently dissatisfied with how our government is operating,” Wagner said “people like democracy and maybe are a little more frustrated with how democracy operates in the United States.”

Wagner said too many people think that younger voters, if they turn out, will automatically vote for Democrats.

“Many people are missing the fact that younger voters are actually pretty upset about the state of our political universe,” and that could lead to some upended assumptions — including the possibility that their voting patterns may not line up with widespread expectations.

One result might be more support from younger voters or independent, third-party candidates, or for Trump, he said.

Fine print

The poll of 1,053 registered voters was conducted March 15-17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used text messages to reach registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online and used automated phone calls to reach other voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

A nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Tuesday found Biden and Trump tied at 44%.

When the responses were narrowed to likely voters, Biden fared slightly better, but the contest is still essentially tied, with 47% for Biden and 45% for Trump.

That’s generally in line with most recent national polls, which have one or the other candidate slightly ahead. The latest RealClearPolling average had Trump leading Biden, 45.5% to 47.2%.

And it’s somewhat expected given “how highly partisan this race is and how fairly evenly divided the country is,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

The FAU poll was conducted among voters across the country, and comes as five states, including Florida, are holding their presidential primaries — even though the Biden vs. Trump contest is, for all practical purposes, set.

The election is almost eight months away, and public opinion can shift. And the outcome is determined in state-by-state races for electoral votes, not the overall national totals.

Relatively few people are open to changing their minds. The poll found 4% of those surveyed said they’d vote for another candidate and 4% were undecided.

The FAU poll found the vast majority of Democrats favor Biden (86% to 8%) and the overwhelming majority of Republicans favor Trump (86% to 9%).

Independents are evenly split at 43% for Biden and 40% for Trump, which is within the margin of error and not a statistically significant difference.

The never Trump, never Biden votes

Non-Trump voters were asked why they felt the way they did.

It was an easy question for the overwhelming majority: 67% of non-Trump voters who responded that they would “never” consider voting for him.

That left a relatively small share of non-Trump voters to explain other reasons. The top concern of non-Trump voters was performance, cited by 12%. Just 2% cited the former president’s age. He is 77.

Among non-Trump voters age 18-to-34, 43% said they would “never” consider voting for him, while among those 65 and older, it was 79%.

Non-Biden voters were asked the same question, with 43% saying they would never consider voting for him.

The top concern for non-Biden voters was “performance,” cited by 30%, followed by age, cited by 2%. He is 81.

The reasons for not supporting Biden varied for different groups. Among 18-34 year-olds, 37% cited performance and 11% cited age. Among votes 65 and older, 23% cited performance and just 5% cited age.

No SOTU boost

Biden’s performance at the annual State of the Union Address, which  many independent analysts said was a strong showing that dispelled the narrative that he isn’t mentally up to the job, didn’t produce a rush of voters to him.

Among all voters, 29% said his State of the Union speech made them view Biden as more fit for office with 34% saying it made no change. But 37% said it made him less fit.

Wagner said some of the reaction to the State of the Union is “clearly driven by partisanship. People see political events through their partisan lens.” Still, he said, he expected “Biden was likely to get a more positive response than our numbers suggested. And I expect that would be disappointing for the Biden (campaign).”

Women were more likely than men to say it made him more fit. Men were more likely to say the speech  made him less fit.

There was the usual partisan split as well, with 52% of Democrats saying they saw Biden as more fit after the State of the Union Address and 63% of Republicans said they believe Biden is less fit.

It didn’t help Biden with independents, with 25% saying the speech made Biden seem more fit and 35% less fit.

Overall, Biden is underwater, with more people disapproving of his performance than approving.

His approval is 47% and disapproval 51%.

Wagner said the approval rating for Biden is higher than in some other recent national surveys. “It’s a much better number for Biden than we’ve seen,” he said. It could be a one-time result based on this survey’s sample or, more significantly, the beginning of an improvement for Biden.

There’s no significant difference between men and women.

Age differences

Biden’s approval is lower among the youngest voters (39%) than among the oldest voters (53%).

The Biden vs. Trump matchup question revealed some potentially significant differences among the youngest and oldest voters.

The poll found younger likely voters (traditionally a demographic group that favors Democrats) favor Trump. And older voters (who turn out in greater numbers than younger voters) favored Biden.

18-34 year-olds: Biden, 37%; Trump 54%.35-49 year-olds: Biden, 44%; Trump 48%.50-64 year-olds: Biden, 46%; Trump 43%.65 and older: Biden, 54%; Trump 41%.

The differences among age groups were surprising Wagner said, adding that the responses of younger voters are a cause for concern for the Biden campaign if it continues.

“It would be one thing to see younger voters who were disenchanted or unhappy with Biden’s performance. We’ve seen some evidence of that related to foreign policy, both Israel and Ukraine,” Wagner said. What is potentially ominous for the president’s reelection, he said, was “not just that Biden was doing less well, but Trump was doing considerably better…. It’s hard to see how Biden can win without doing disproportionately well with younger voters.”

Gender divide

The poll found men favor Trump and women favor Biden.

Among female likely voters, Biden was at 53% with Trump at 38%, an advantage of 15 percentage points for the president.

Among male likely voters, Biden had 41% compared to 51% for Trump, an advantage of 10 points for the former president.

Income differences

Lower income voters prefer Trump. As earnings increase, support for Biden increases as well.

• Less than $50,000: Biden, 42%; Trump, 51%.
• $50,000 to $75,000: Biden 48%; Trump 39%.
• $75,000 to $100,000: Biden 52%; Trump 41%.
• More than $100,000: Biden 56%; Trump 38%.

House of Representatives

Voters are evenly divided about the U.S. House of Representatives, with 45% of likely voters saying they’d vote for Democrats if the election were held today and 44% for Republicans.

Party affiliation has a huge correlation with how people would vote in congressional races, with 88% of Democrats voting for a candidate in their party and 92% of Republicans voting for one of their own.

Independents split 41% for Democrats and 35% for Republicans.

Fine print

The poll of 1,053 registered voters was conducted March 15 through March 17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used text messages to reach registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online and used automated phone calls to reach other voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

More than three-quarters of voters surveyed in a nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday said it’s unacceptable to call competing candidates nicknames.

And two-thirds said it’s unacceptable to attack competing candidates by disparaging their personal characteristics.

The questions were written to be neutral, and so didn’t mention Trump by name. But there’s no mistaking who has employed the practice of assigning unflattering — or nasty — nicknames to political foes.

In or out of office, Trump is the nation’s name-caller-in-chief.

“The most interesting thing to me is that despite the fact that people say they don’t like it, it doesn’t seem to be determinative for who they’re voting for,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist.

In other words, many say they don’t like the nicknames and personal attacks — but also support Trump.

The poll found Trump leading President Joe Biden 41% to 37%.

What looks like a disconnect between what people say they want and how they actually vote isn’t unique, Wagner said. “(It) is sort of consistent with the pattern we often find in negative campaigning. People say they don’t like it, but tend to be influenced and often persuaded by it.”

Nicknames

During the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Trump bestowed negative nicknames on his two principal competitors.

“DeSanctimonious” was Trump’s label for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, starting in 2022, when it became obvious that DeSantis planned to run for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Last month, after finishing a distant second place to Trump in the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump.

In return, the former president said the name DeSanctimonious was “officially retired.”

“Birdbrain” is Trump’s name for former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina — even though when he was president he appointed her as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

She is currently Trump’s last remaining rival for the party nomination.

Disapproval

Voters say they don’t like the practice of calling competing candidates by nicknames.

• 58% of voters strongly disagree that it is “acceptable to call competing candidates nicknames”; another 19% somewhat agree that it is acceptable.
• Only 6% strongly agree it’s acceptable and 12% said it’s somewhat acceptable.
• More women strongly disapproved (64%) than men (51%).
• Younger voters were much less bothered than older voters: among 18- to 34-year-olds, 46% strongly disagreed that it is acceptable to use the nicknames, compared to 35-49, 54%; 50-64, 67%; and 65+, 72%.

People who said in the survey they planned to vote for Trump were far less likely than Biden voters to find it unacceptable to call competing candidates by nicknames.

Among Trump voters, 74% said they disagree that nicknames are acceptable (48% strongly; 26% somewhat).

Among Biden voters, 85% said they disagree that nicknames are acceptable (69% strongly; 15% somewhat).

Personal characteristics

Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and unsuccessful candidate for the 2016 presidential nomination, was subjected to a different kind of critique.

A Rolling Stone reporter traveling with Trump described what happened when Fiorina’s face appeared on a TV screen. “Look at that face!” Trump said. “Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!”

He added, “I mean, she’s a woman, and I’m not s’posed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?”

After his comments were published, Trump didn’t dispute the quote, but told Fox News that the comment was “jocular” in manner. “Probably I did say something like that about Carly,” Trump said. “I’m talking about persona. I’m not talking about look.”

Surveyed voters said they don’t like candidates talking about personal characteristics.

Two-thirds of voters disagreed that it is “acceptable to attack the competing candidates by disparaging their personal characteristics.”

A quarter said it is acceptable.

Women were much less comfortable with men making disparaging attacks based on personal characteristics.

Is it acceptable?

• All voters: 44% strongly disagree, 23% somewhat disagree that it’s acceptable.
• Women: 48% strongly disagree, 24% somewhat disagree.
• Men: 39% strongly disagree, 22% somewhat disagree.
• Trump voters: 34% strongly disagree, 28% somewhat disagree.
• Biden voters: 54% strongly disagree; 19% somewhat disagree.

An overwhelming majority (61%) said they strongly disagree that it’s acceptable to attack competing candidates by disparaging their family members. Another 18% somewhat disagree.

Just 15% said they somewhat or strongly agree that attacks on family members are acceptable.

Familiar pattern

Two prominent Floridians were singed by Trump nicknames during the race for the 2016 Republican nomination, when he had many names for his foes, including fellow Republicans.

“Little Marco” Rubio was in reference to the U.S. senator from Florida.

Trump offered a pronunciation and spelling lesson at a rally west of Boca Raton. The label should be l-i-d-d-l-e, he said at the time. He also mocked Rubio as a choke artist.

And he decried “low-energy Jeb Bush,” when referring to the former Florida governor.

They weren’t alone. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, for example, was “lyin’ Ted.”

Trump’s 2016 Democratic opponent in the general election was “Crooked Hillary” Clinton. In 2020 he said he was running against “Sleepy Joe” Biden.

Trump switched things up last year, labeling the president “Crooked Joe.”

The survey

The survey was done by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The FAU survey of 1,180 adults was conducted on Friday and Saturday by Mainstreet Research. An important caveat: The survey was conducted via text message and an online panel. That made it impossible to assign a margin of error, the survey report said, adding it was “intended to represent the voting population” of the U.S.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

The survey reported Trump with 41% to Biden’s 37%.

There was a significant gender gap. Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points among women and 7 points among men.

The former president was ahead of Biden by 5 or 6 percentage points among most age groups. They were tied among voters aged 50-64.

Someone else

Asked if they’d vote for Biden or Trump, a significant share of voters said they’d vote for another candidate (13%) or were undecided (9%).

Political insiders have been debating the effects additional candidates could have on the outcome. If an independent or third-party candidate attracts mostly people who would otherwise vote for Biden, that would aid Trump. If other candidates siphon more votes from Trump, that would help Biden.

A large share of voters — one third — don’t accept the notion that the election in November will actually come down to a choice between the current Democratic president and the former Republican president.

Just 54% of those surveyed said the 2024 presidential election would be between Biden and Trump.

Another 33% said one or both of the two wouldn’t be a candidate in November.

And 13% said they didn’t know if it would involve Biden, Trump or different candidates.

Other findings

Biden approval — 57% said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president and 38% said they somewhat or strongly approve.

Not locked in — A majority (53%) said they were very likely to cast a vote for the candidate they said they’d support in November. Another 26% said they were somewhat likely to vote for that candidate, with 7% somewhat unlikely and 5% very unlikely to vote for the candidate they said they’d support.

College vs. non-college — Among white non-college educated voters, Trump leads Biden 52% to 26%. Among white college-educated voters, Trump has a much smaller lead, 44% to 40%.

“Former President Trump is maintaining a commanding lead with white non-college-educated voters. This group has been steadfast and largely unmoved in their support of the former president,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist said in a written statement.

The survey

Most recent major national polls have Trump slightly ahead of Biden — and fewer voters undecided or considering unnamed alternatives. The RealClearPolling average Tuesday afternoon showed a 47% to 45% split.

The survey was done by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The FAU survey of 1,180 adults was conducted on Friday and Saturday by Mainstreet Research. An important caveat: The survey was conducted via text message and an online panel. That made it impossible to assign a margin of error, the survey report said, adding it was “intended to represent the voting population” of the U.S.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

The scene outside the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. U.S. Courthouse in Miami was part Donald Trump campaign rally and part reality TV show featuring celebrity faces and anti-Trump protesters, blistering heat and humidity, and a crowd that included people who’d traveled long distances for a day in South Florida.

There was even — emblematic of Miami — a vendor outside the courthouse selling tubs of sliced fruit for $10.

All were gathered Tuesday because of the historic event inside, the first court appearance for the former president facing federal charges alleging he hoarded classified documents detailing sensitive military secrets and schemed to thwart government efforts to get them back.

The major legal development of the day, as expected, was Trump’s not guilty plea to each of the 37 counts in the federal indictment.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the crowd, which was smaller than the 5,000 to 50,000 that Miami officials said a day earlier they were prepared for. At least 1,000 people gathered at the courthouse, along with hundreds of reporters, photojournalists and TV personalities.

And despite the passions and the heat — and some occasional shouting between Trump friends and foes — there wasn’t any violence, even though several reporters peppered Miami’s mayor and police chief on Monday with ‘what-if’ questions about worst-case scenarios.

26 hours in Miami-Dade

Just before he finished the momentous 26-hour trip to Miami-Dade County, Trump’s motorcade took him to a post-court campaign stop at Versailles, the iconic restaurant in Little Havana.

Just before 5 p.m. Trump’s red, white and blue Boeing 757, emblazoned with his name in gold, took off from Miami International Airport headed to New Jersey, for a scheduled campaign fundraiser and speech at his golf club in Bedminster.

He describes his Mar-a-Lago resort and club in Palm Beach — where the indictment alleges Trump intentionally retained hundreds of classified documents that he took with him from the White House — as his home, but typically doesn’t spend the hot summer season there.

He spent the night at Trump National Doral, his Miami-Dade golf club after arriving at MIA about 3 p.m. Monday.

As a former president, Trump traveled on the ground in a motorcade, with police blocking traffic, including on busy expressways, to expedite his movements. From the SUV on his way to court, Trump told his social media followers that he was “ON MY WAY TO COURTHOUSE. WITCH HUNT!!! MAGA.”

Back in the SUV after court, he posted again on his Truth Social platform: “Thank you Miami. Such a warm welcome on such a SAD DAY for our Country!”

Both posts were unusual in their brevity and lack of attacks on political enemies.

Supporters

Rose Rodriguez, 58, said her parents came to the U.S. from Cuba, and she believes if Trump doesn’t win the 2024 election, communism will come to the U.S. “I know what communism is,” she said.

Rodriguez said she attended Tuesday’s gathering — it wasn’t her first pro-Trump event — to prove he has a support system.

“He’s a man for the people,” she said.

As Trump arrived at the courthouse, supporters cheered, chanting “Trump” and “USA! USA! USA!”

Some Trump supporters expressed their displeasure with President Joe Biden by chanting “No more Biden!” and “Let’s Go Brandon.” That’s a phrase popular among Republicans that directs an obscenity toward the president.

Luimar Zibetti Garza, 60, a longtime Floridian who says she’s homeless, set up on a sidewalk outside the federal courthouse. She had an umbrella with a sign that said, “Homeless 4 Trump.” “I came out to support Trump because I know he’s being railroaded,” Garza said.

Traveling long distance

Some of the people who showed up outside the federal courthouse traveled a long way.

Katie Taylor, 76, traveled from Virginia, stopping in Sanford, N.C., to pick up Gloria Eck.

Eck said the indictment is “just proof to me how corrupt” the Department of Justice is. “If people don’t stand up we’re going to lose our country.”

She said she wasn’t concerned about an unattended item with wires that prompted police to temporarily clear an area near the courthouse. “We can’t be worried (about it). They want to push us out.”

Taylor said she was “not a protester,” instead describing herself  as “a supporter of President Trump.”

Several dozen Trump supporters boarded Miami-bound buses at an Orlando Walmart.

Miriam J. Ramirez, president of the Puerto Rico Republican Assembly, said she and others in the Puerto Rican community are sticking with the former president. “We feel safe, like a daddy who’s taking care of us.”

As they boarded the buses in Orlando, Danette Chialtas offered a different assessment. “Get on the bus, you traitors!” she said. “Your dictator is being arraigned today for espionage. Traitors!”

Opponents

Xavier Presley, 67, of Miami, is a regular fixture at any Trump rally. Despite the heat, he wore his typical outfit Tuesday afternoon outside of the courthouse: a suit jacket that has expletives and Trump’s name written in marker on it.

Presley, who stood alone underneath a palm tree with many neon colored signs with an obscenity and Trump’s name, said he typically attends the rallies alone to avoid any trouble with Trump supporters.

Presley said he’s long been an activist. But he stops short of calling himself political. “Because you can never win,” he said. “You have no winner in politics. Because they all are crooks.”

Even Trump supporters laugh, he said. “They do laugh. A lot of Trump people today, I was surprised, a lot of Trump people took pictures with my signs.”

Disagreements generally were mild. When Trump opponents shouted “Trump’s a dick,” some of his supporters responded with shouts of “We love Trump” then sang “God Bless America.”

Domenic Santana, a native New Yorker who now lives in Miami, wore an outfit with prison stripes and held a “lock him up” sign, designed for maximum media attention. He wore the same outfit and carried the same sign on Monday. “Trump is a rat who graduated from the school of rats and wound up in the White House. The New Yorkers know. He should have been locked up a long, long time ago,” Santana said.

Versailles

After court, Trump made a brief stop at Versailles, the iconic Miami restaurant in Little Havana.

Versailles is a must-do photo op for Republican candidates campaigning in Miami and gave Trump a chance to visit with supporters in the Cuban American community, where he developed a loyal following during his presidency.

People cheered and news video showed people laying hands on him in prayer.

“Food for everyone!” Trump declared as he worked the dining room shaking hands. Supporters sang “Happy Birthday” to Trump, who turns 77 on Wednesday.

Trump smiled and gave a thumbs-up sign to people taking pictures. “We have a country that is in decline like never before. We can’t let it happen,” he said.

Few incidents

Later in the day, a man jumped in front of a vehicle in Trump’s motorcade as it was leaving the courthouse, and was quickly pulled away by law enforcement officers and later taken away by several Miami Police officers.

In the morning, police moved people away from an area near the courthouse after an unattended object was spotted. The suspicious item turned out to be a flat-screen television with wires coming out. It had a statement expressing intense displeasure for what the writer called “the Communist media.”

The area was reopened after it was determined there was no threat.

.⁦@aronberg⁩ providing legal analysis for ⁦@MSNBC⁩ live coverage of Trump federal court day. https://t.co/rIX3qtQvsA pic.twitter.com/pT42cHTvH7

— Anthony Man (@browardpolitics) June 13, 2023

Few newsmakers

Few newsmakers actually appeared outside the courthouse to make news.

Alina Habba, an attorney for Trump, appeared to assert the indictment was not justified, repeating many of the assertions Trump and his supporters have made since the charges came out last week.

“The people in charge of this country do not love America. They hate Donald Trump. What we are witnessing today is a blatant and unapologetic weaponization of the criminal justice system,” she said. “The decision to pursue charges against President Trump while turning a blind eye to others is emblematic of the corruption that we have here.”

Laura Loomer, the internet provocateur and two-time unsuccessful candidate for Congress, led “We want Trump!” outside the courthouse. Kari Lake, the unsuccessful 2022 Republican candidate for Arizona governor, Trump supporter and 2020 election denier, was also present.

Doing business

Miami’s entrepreneurial spirit was on display.

Aldrena Oliveras, 52, of Miami, set up a tent selling tubs of fruit: pineapple, cranberry, kiwi, apples, watermelon, pears, mango. She said the political event was different from her usual days selling on Miami Beach or in Little Havana.

Business, not politics, was on her mind. And it was booming. She said her $500 in sales was much more than usual.

A water vendor invoked the crowd’s interest as he sold from a water cooler. “It’s hot to be a Trump supporter! Get some ice cold water!”

Ronald Solomon, president of the MAGA Mall, was selling $20 hats ($25 for a cowboy hat) and $10 flags. His biggest sellers: the classic, red “Make America Great Again,” “Trump 2024” with an embroidered American flag, and “God, Guns and Trump.”

He said he sold about $4,000 of hats on Tuesday.

Sun Sentinel staff photographers Joe Cavaretta and Mike Stocker and Orlando Sentinel staff writer Skyler Swisher contributed to this report, which contains information from The Associated Press.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com, on Twitter @browardpolitics and on Post.news/@browardpolitics

Its status as a swing state — with victory within reach for either party — and the enormous trove of electoral votes for the winner often made it the nation’s most hotly contested election battleground.

Candidates, for whom time is their most valuable commodity, lavished attention on Florida. Celebrity surrogates poured in to court pockets of voters from the state’s diverse communities. And enormous sums of money were spent on TV ads and field organizers.

In 2024, much of that time, energy and money will be traveling to other states — not Florida, whose voters aren’t likely to be sought after as they’ve been in most of the presidential elections since the ultra-close 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Florida just isn’t as competitive as it once was.

“The path to the White House for Democrats now goes through Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and not Florida,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan campaign analysis. He is also an elections analyst for CQ Roll Call.

Florida is on a longer Inside Elections list of 15 competitive states.

“Florida can still be considered a battleground state, but it’s not a swing state. Florida is only swinging between the Republicans win it by a little or win it by a lot,” Gonzales said. “We are in a different chapter of Florida than the 2000 presidential election, when it was just a few votes.”

Early sign

One sign of what’s to come.

The early, mostly symbolic, advertising launched after President Joe Biden officially announced his candidacy for reelection on Tuesday was targeted at what his campaign described as six battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Florida was not on the list.

The big Democratic super political action committee, Priorities USA, said it was launching “digital mobilization and persuasion programming” efforts aimed in same six battleground states — not including Florida — “that will be decisive in choosing the next president and hold competitive Senate races.”

State Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Miami Gardens Democrat, said people shouldn’t draw conclusions based on those initial ad buys.

Jones, who was an early supporter of Biden in 2020 — and traveled to campaign for him in the Iowa presidential caucuses — said Democrats haven’t written off the state.

“People saying the national Democrats are not going to spend time in Florida, that could not be further from the truth,” Jones said. “They are going to spend time and resources in Florida. … There is a lot of opportunity here,” said Jones, who is a member of the Democratic National Committee and founder of Operation BlackOut, an effort to encourage minority Floridians to vote by mail.

Republican red

More and more, Florida is being seen as a Republican red state, instead of a purple state offering a realistic shot for the Democrats. A range of analysts said they don’t expect Biden or the eventual Republican nominee to ignore Florida, but its importance is much less than it was.

“Democrats are looking at the map and making decisions about where they’re going to spend money, and Florida’s less appealing right now based on recent trends,” said Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University. “At this point it’s unclear that they will have the resources to seriously compete in 2024.”

And, Foreman added, there’s a lot of time until prime election season. “It’s too early to know how significant Florida will be in the national discussion,” he said.

Myra Adams of Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, who writes frequently for conservative national publications and did media work on two Republican presidential campaigns, said Florida is too big for either side to write off.

“You have a state that has 30 electoral votes. It can never be counted out as a battleground state. It could flip back to purple status. There’s no way Democrats are going to write off Florida the way they wrote it off for the [2022] governor’s race,” Adams said.

The 30 electoral votes are one-ninth of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Candidates in Florida

President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory showed that a Democrat can win the presidency even without Florida’s electoral votes.

And Morning Consult reported in April that its surveys conducted in the first three months of the year found 57% of Florida residents disapproved of Biden’s performance and 39% approved, a net negative of 18 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2022, he had a net negative of 12 points and the year before that a net positive of 9 points.

The frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination in 2024 is former President Donald Trump, who lives in the state and won in 2016 and 2020. The runner-up in polling is the all-but-declared Republican candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also won the state twice.

“As of today, the two frontrunners on the Republican side are Florida residents. I don’t think they [the Democrats] are saying we’re going to give up the state if Trump or DeSantis is the nominee, but it will certainly make it harder for Democrats to compete if one of those guys is the Republican candidate,” Forman said.

The numbers

Numbers show the Republicans’ ascendancy.

In the years since the 2012 election, Republicans have won 16 statewide elections. Democrats won just one, for state agriculture commissioner in 2018.

In 2016, Trump won 49% of the vote in Florida, 1.2 percentage points ahead of Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, the reelection-seeking president won 51.2% of the vote in Florida 3.3 percentage points ahead of Biden.

In 2018, Republican Ron DeSantis received 49.6% of the vote for governor, 0.4 percentage points ahead of Democrat Andrew Gillum. Running for reelection last year, DeSantis received 59.4% of the vote, 19.4 percentage points ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist.

In 2021, for the first time in modern Florida history, the number of registered Republicans surpassed the number of registered Democrats.

The 5.28 million people registered as Republicans for the 2022 elections was an increase of 24.3% from 2012. Florida’s 4.97 million registered Democrats last year was 3.96% higher than 10 years earlier.

“Even though the biggest 2022 races were blowouts, we can’t forget that the 2022 presidential election was still close. It was just a few points. I don’t think that Democrats can afford to give up on Florida or cede Florida to Republicans at the outset,” Gonzales said.

Inside Elections’ metric called Baseline uses election results to examine the partisanship of each state and how well a typical Democrat or Republican would perform.

After 2022, Gonzales said, a typical Republican would defeat a typical Democrat in Florida 53.9% to 45.1% — an 8.8 point GOP advantage. (In 2018, the Republican advantage was 4.5 points.)

Money available?

A central question for national Democrats is how much time and money should go toward Florida.

Because it’s such a huge state, with many high-priced television markets, it’s enormously expensive for candidates to operate and advertise in.

National strategists will be making a cold, hard calculation: Could the millions it takes to campaign in Florida be better spent in other critical close states such as Arizona or Georgia — places where the money might have a greater chance of making the difference between winning and losing.

“National Democrats seem inclined to give up on Florida and put the significant resources in other states that are more winnable,” Foreman said.

It’s also possible Democrats will make some strategic investments in Florida to convince Republicans to put resources in the state so they can’t spend that cash elsewhere.

“Does the Democratic Party still spend some money here to make it appear like they’re competing so that Republicans use resources in Florida that don’t go to other states? That’s the big question. That is a chess match,” Foreman said.

That happened in 2020. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent some $100 million to help Biden in the state, prompting Trump to spend more time and money in the state while Biden concentrated more of his efforts elsewhere.

Foreman added that there’s a limit to such attempts. “Dollars are finite. So you can’t be wasting them just to bait someone else to spend money here.”

If that’s a reason Democratic donors spend money in Florida, which would help “very, very important — vitally important” lower-level candidates with their efforts next year, that’s fine with Jones.

“Let’s make the Republicans spend more” in Florida, he said. “Let’s spend the money to make them spend the money.”

Senate race

Another factor: the U.S. Senate race. Florida Democrats don’t have a prominent potential candidate to challenge U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.

Scott’s three statewide victories — two for governor and one for Senate — have been nail-bitingly close. But he’s on a trajectory to win reelection next year.

That means even less incentive for national Democrats to devote money to Florida — unlike, for example, Arizona, where the presidential race and the U.S. Senate race could go either way.

“Until Democrats get a formidable candidate, Rick Scott’s a favorite,” Foreman said. “Early indicators don’t even show Florida as a toss-up Senate race, so that’s less of an incentive.”

Inside Elections’ initial rating of Scott’s Senate seat is “solid Republican.”

“A ‘solid Republican’ rating is striking both because of Florida’s former swing state status, as well as Rick Scott’s three very narrow victories,” Gonzales said. “He is in solid shape initially and Democrats not only have to find a good candidate, but find a way to fund that candidate.”

(Jones, one of the people whose name has been floated as a possible U.S. Senate candidate, laughed when asked about the prospect. “There’s a lot of speculation that’s out there. Here’s what I’ll tell you. I am committed to finish my term here in the [Florida state] Senate,” Jones said. His state Senate term runs through 2026.)

South Florida

The state’s three largest counties, Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, play a big role in determining if Republican dominance continues or Democrats make a comeback. Republicans have severely eroded the Democratic advantage in South Florida.

“Democrats have to do better in South Florida or they’re not going to win statewide. Whether that’s candidates or money, they have got to do better in South Florida,” Gonzales said.

An analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said “the big 3 big South Florida counties were considerably less blue in 2020 than they were in 2012: Obama won the trio by 26 points, while Biden won them by 16 points. Miami-Dade has driven that shift.” Obama won the three counties by 24 points in 2012; Biden won them by 7 in 2020.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com, on Twitter @browardpolitics and on Post.news/@browardpolitics.